Foto 1 di 1
Galleria
Foto 1 di 1
Ne hai uno da vendere?
The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With - GOOD
US $5,51
CircaEUR 4,69
o Proposta d'acquisto
Prezzo iniziale: US $7,99 (31% di sconto)
Condizione:
Buone condizioni
Libro che è già stato letto ma è in buone condizioni. Mostra piccolissimi danni alla copertina incluse alcune rigature, ma nessun foro o strappo. È possibile che la sovraccoperta per le copertine rigide non sia inclusa. La rilegatura presenta minimi segni di usura. La maggior parte delle pagine non è danneggiata e mostra una quantità minima di piegature o strappi, sottolineature di testo a matita, nessuna evidenziazione di testo né scritte ai margini. Non ci sono pagine mancanti. Per maggiori dettagli e la descrizione di eventuali imperfezioni, consulta l'inserzione del venditore.
La vendita promozionale scade tra: 1g 5h
- Compralo SubitoThe Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With - GOOD
Oops! Looks like we're having trouble connecting to our server.
Refresh your browser window to try again.
Spedizione:
US $4,47 (circa EUR 3,81) USPS Media MailTM.
Oggetto che si trova a: Riverton, Illinois, Stati Uniti
Consegna:
Consegna prevista tra il gio 31 lug e il gio 7 ago a 94104
Restituzioni:
Restituzioni entro 30 giorni. Le spese di spedizione del reso sono a carico del venditore.
Pagamenti:
Fai shopping in tutta sicurezza
Il venditore si assume la piena responsabilità della messa in vendita dell'oggetto.
Numero oggetto eBay:226865866609
Specifiche dell'oggetto
- Condizione
- Brand
- Unbranded
- MPN
- Does not apply
- ISBN
- 9780812973815
Informazioni su questo prodotto
Product Information
The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes . A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan " A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate " Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Random House Publishing Group
ISBN-10
081297381x
ISBN-13
9780812973815
eBay Product ID (ePID)
8038694172
Product Key Features
Publication Name
Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: with a New Section: on Robustness and Fragility
Format
Trade Paperback
Language
English
Series
Incerto Ser.
Publication Year
2010
Type
Textbook
Number of Pages
480 Pages
Subject
Information Theory, Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Future Studies, Statistics, Corporate Finance / General
Subject Area
Computers, Business & Economics, Social Science
Dimensions
Item Length
8 in
Item Height
1 in
Item Width
5.2 in
Item Weight
12.2 Oz
Additional Product Features
Edition Number
2
LCCN
2010-292618
Series Volume Number
2
Lc Classification Number
Q375.T35 2010
Reviews
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb "The most prophetic voice of all." --GQ Praise for The Black Swan "[A book] that altered modern thinking." -- The Times (London) "A masterpiece." --Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant." --Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works." --Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy." --The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into." -- Financial Times "Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition." --The New York Times Book Review, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."--Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."-- Financial Times "A masterpiece."--Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."--Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times, "The Black Swanchanged my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."-Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author ofThe Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson,Los Angeles Times, " The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works."-Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate "Hugely enjoyable-compelling . . . easy to dip into."- Financial Times "A masterpiece."-Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail "Idiosyncratically brilliant."-Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times
Target Audience
Trade
Illustrated
Yes
Descrizione dell'oggetto fatta dal venditore
Informazioni sul venditore professionale
Informazioni su questo venditore
The Squeaky Dollar
99,6% di Feedback positivi•3,7 mila oggetti venduti
Registrato come venditore professionale
Feedback sul venditore (1.286)
- t***a (347)- Feedback lasciato dall'acquirente.Ultimi 6 mesiAcquisto verificatoCommunication with the seller was great. They also provided contact information if there’s any problems on a sticker on my item packaging. The item was exactly as described. They look in really good condition. Shipping was quick and the value was great. Recommend highly the seller.LL Bean Womens Nylon Stretch Black Hiking Shorts Sporty Summer Cargo sz 12 Reg (N° 226635739633)
- c***s (2)- Feedback lasciato dall'acquirente.Ultimi 6 mesiAcquisto verificatoItem arrived just as described / shown in the provided images and was fair value. Arrived from across the country in a week. Box / packaging arrived a little worn (and the packing tape on top came loose which is concerning) but I would blame this on USPS. Would buy again!Filson Canvas Leather Carry On Luggage Suitcase Rolling Green Brown Twill USA (N° 226575638878)
- 5***e (45)- Feedback lasciato dall'acquirente.Ultimi 6 mesiAcquisto verificatoPants received in excellent condition, great price and fast shipping. The pants were exactly as described with hardly any flaws from previous use. No damage to packaging. Highly recommend this seller.Duluth Trading Co Flex Dry On The Fly Mens Stretch Cargo Relaxed Pants 48x30 (N° 226580033321)
The Squeaky Dollar
99,6% di Feedback positivi•3,7 mila oggetti venduti
Registrato come venditore professionale
Feedback sul venditore (1.286)
- t***a (347)- Feedback lasciato dall'acquirente.Ultimi 6 mesiAcquisto verificatoCommunication with the seller was great. They also provided contact information if there’s any problems on a sticker on my item packaging. The item was exactly as described. They look in really good condition. Shipping was quick and the value was great. Recommend highly the seller.LL Bean Womens Nylon Stretch Black Hiking Shorts Sporty Summer Cargo sz 12 Reg (N° 226635739633)
- c***s (2)- Feedback lasciato dall'acquirente.Ultimi 6 mesiAcquisto verificatoItem arrived just as described / shown in the provided images and was fair value. Arrived from across the country in a week. Box / packaging arrived a little worn (and the packing tape on top came loose which is concerning) but I would blame this on USPS. Would buy again!Filson Canvas Leather Carry On Luggage Suitcase Rolling Green Brown Twill USA (N° 226575638878)
- 5***e (45)- Feedback lasciato dall'acquirente.Ultimi 6 mesiAcquisto verificatoPants received in excellent condition, great price and fast shipping. The pants were exactly as described with hardly any flaws from previous use. No damage to packaging. Highly recommend this seller.Duluth Trading Co Flex Dry On The Fly Mens Stretch Cargo Relaxed Pants 48x30 (N° 226580033321)